Ozden ‘Patters of Global Migration and Opportunities’

Caglar Ozden has a fascinating set of slides titled: “LOW HANGING FRUIT ON THE DEVELOPMENT TREE: Patterns of Global Migration & Opportunities”. Here are some outtakes:

  • Over 4 per cent of Ghanians and Liberians applied for the US Diversity visa in 2012. In Australia, that is the equivalent of 920,000 people.
  • Between 1990-2000, migration grew at 31 per cent. However those with a graduate education grew by over 70 per cent.
  • 65% of all high-skilled immigrants move to USA, Canada, Australia or the UK.
  • Of the major migration corridors (in 2000), by far the majority are low-skilled and about half or more are made up by women:
Origin Destination Stock (‘000) % High Skill % Women
Mexico US 6374.8 14.4 45.2
Bangladesh India 3211.9 2.1 48
Ukraine Russia 3024.2 25.2 52.1
Burkina Faso Cote d’Ivoire 2238.5 0.3 44.7
Russia Ukraine 2183.7 17.5 61.5
Kazakhstan Russia 1837.3 21.3 53.6
China Hong Kong 1620.5 12.9 50.6
India Pakistan 1613.3 2.7 42.4
Russia Kazakhstan 1611.1 60.5 54.2
Pakistan India 1288.2 4.4 47.5
Turkey Germany 1272 6.3 45.8
Philippines US 1163.6 71.7 58.6
UK Australia 969 39.4 50
China US 841.7 51.6 52.6
Belarus Russia 837 22.8 55.2

However my favourite two slides were of the Malaysian labour market and the education sector:

Screen Shot 2014-01-10 at 5.51.40 PM Screen Shot 2014-01-10 at 5.52.22 PM

This does not show more migrants equals more kids in school. But it does show interesting trends. Malaysia is a pretty unique case of economic development in recent history and their immigration policy framework is likely a reflection of incredible economic growth. This creates more opportunity for high skilled domestic workers but also low skilled temporary workers. The significant rise in domestic education in particular is incredible as is the increasing share of a higher migrant skill level.

However it would be very interesting to know more on how these forces are connected. For a country like Australia, which has >25% migrants within our population, what effect does this have on Australian born kids and education outcomes, if anything? How should these broader, long-term effects of immigration policy be weighted and considered against the more short-term effects on the labour market, such as employment and wages?



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